From Escalation to Ceasefire

False flag claims, drone attacks, and rising nuclear tensions in Asia.

Aalmeen Khan
Source: reuters

I was about to go to sleep when I received a text from a friend that read, “Bhai, India ne attack kar diya hai” (Brother, India has attacked). I immediately turned on the TV and saw that India had launched Operation Sindoor to avenge the terrorist attack that had occurred in Pahalgam a few days earlier. India had targeted various cities across Pakistan, violating the country’s sovereignty under the pretext of striking terrorist camps, yet offered no evidence to support these claims. In reality, the attacks hit innocent civilians, including women and children.

Pakistani officials strongly condemned the assault and vowed to avenge the loss of innocent lives at a time and place of their choosing. This blatant violation of international law and dangerous escalation of conflict was not initiated by Pakistan but by India. The situation could have dangerously escalated into a nuclear confrontation had it not been for the intervention of Uncle Sam (the United States), who, at the start of the conflict, responded with indifference, advising both nations to resolve a dispute that has endured for decades.

Who will tell our friends in the White House that this conflict didn’t begin yesterday; it dates back to the partition of Pakistan and India in 1947?

India chose the path of aggression. After attacking several locations in Pakistan, it started sending drones into different cities, particularly near sensitive installations of the Pakistani military. The drones, mostly Israeli Harop drones, were effectively intercepted and shot down by various arms. India used the drones for various purposes; one of them was obviously reconnaissance, and the other was to instil fear in the hearts of civilians.

Sending drones to Pakistan was a bad precedent set by India, given the fact that the subcontinent is one of the most volatile regions in the world, with both of the parties being nuclear armed. What was even more disturbing was the fact that India, on the night of May 9th, targeted several bases of the Pakistan Air Force, including the Nur Khan Air Base. This was an outright act of war, marking the first time since 1971 that India launched an attack on Pakistani air bases. Pakistan had continued to show restraint since the Pahalgam incident, going as far as to call for an impartial investigation into the incident. India, on the other hand, held the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance and reduced its diplomatic presence instead of conducting bilateral talks.

The Indian attack was followed by a counterattack by the Pakistani forces. Named Operation Bunyan un Marsoos, it constituted the launching of several Fateh 1 missiles alongside airstrikes on Indian bases and military installations. The situation continued to deteriorate until a National Command Authority session was called by the Prime Minister. The National Command Authority deals with nuclear weapons. Things were going south; had Trump and company not intervened to make better sense prevail, massive destruction could have been on the cards.

What did Modi achieve from this? Did the conflict lead to the Pahalgam perpetrators being discovered? The answer is no. Modi lost credibility on the international stage, a shame enabled by the Indian media, who played the role of warmongers sitting in AC rooms, cheering on bloodshed and anticipating the supposed conquest over Pakistan. The entire world witnessed a prominent defence analyst of India, Gaurav Arya, justifying the spread of fake news by comparing himself with Joseph Goebbels, the infamous propaganda minister of Hitler’s regime. This describes quite aptly the ideology that Modi is promoting in India in the name of Hindutva, following in the genocidal footsteps of his buddy in Tel Aviv. The writer hopes that the public of India is aware of the way their prime minister allowed his ego and resentment towards Pakistan to lead the region into catastrophe.

On the other hand, the Pakistani government and armed forces approached the situation pragmatically, demonstrating immense patience. I will not engage in a debate about who won or lost, but considering India’s economic strength, with a military budget eight times larger than Pakistan’s and state-of-the-art weaponry, Pakistan still delivered a strong response. Special applause is due to the Pakistan Air Force; the boys in blue have consistently lived up to the nation’s expectations and safeguarded the integrity and sovereignty of the country. The shooting down of India’s pride, the French-made Rafale jet, by the PAF will remain a notable chapter in aviation history. With this act, Pakistan, once again, maintained deterrence in the region, delivering a mighty blow to the Indian notion of it being a military might with Modi as the regional head honcho. India must rethink its foreign policy goals in this region, knowing that it is not the sole power in this region; the animosity we are witnessing in this region is due to the aggressive policy towards Pakistan, especially declaring Pakistan a terrorist state without even providing evidence. Pakistan has anecdotal evidence of Indian involvement in terrorism in Pakistan, yet it never resorted to Indian machinations.

Now that the ceasefire is in effect, both the countries should respect it and resort to diplomacy for their issues, as well as encourage people-to-people contact, but that is not possible for the time being. I’m no clairvoyant, but I don’t see things getting normal in the region, at least on the LOC side. I still think Modi can do something foolish for face-saving, as was evident from his latest speech to his nation. Escalation of conflict between two nuclear-armed nations is nothing but foolishness; peace must prevail for the possibility of regional stability.

 

 

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Muhammad Aalmeen is a law student with a passion for history, politics, and community service. He is a keen observer of foreign affairs and defense strategies worldwide.
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