It is generally understood that nuclear deterrence ensures that no two nuclear states will go to war with each other and that the potential consequences of the use of nuclear weapons make even conventional conflict unthinkable. Politics in the Indian subcontinent, however, often defies rationality; this has been on full display since India began a series of escalations against Pakistan starting with the unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty a day after a terrorist attack hit the tourist town of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The breakdown of diplomatic relations between two nuclear-armed neighbours, particularly the expulsion of military attachés, should see world powers running to offer mediation. Barring that, the threat by one of these states to attack the other in a supposed act of vengeance should send shockwaves across the world, eliciting strong condemnation from major world capitals. None of that happened; reactions were muted, terrorism was condemned by all sides, and restraint was urged. This had consequences.
Around 0100 hours on May 7th, the Indian Air Force (IAF) launched a series of attacks against what they alleged were ‘terrorist training camps’ in Pakistan-administered Kashmir but also notably in the Pakistani province of Punjab; what followed was the biggest and longest-range aircraft battle in modern history. Using long-range ‘standoff’ weapons, Indian aircraft struck civilian targets, killing 31 Pakistanis, including children. The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), having been on alert for days, engaged enemy aircraft with Beyond Visual Range missiles, downing 5 five aircraft in Indian airspace while never having to leave Pakistani airspace; three of India’s thirty-six prized Rafale fighter jets were downed alongside a MiG-29, a Sukhoi Su-30, and an Israeli-made IAI Heron Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV).
Screengrab from press briefing deliver by Pakistan’s Deputy Chief of Air Staff (Operations), Air Vice Marshal Aurangzeb Ahmed showing the locations where Indian aircraft were downed on May 7t
As Pakistan weighed options for a response, Harop UAVs—Israeli-made ‘loitering munitions’ that fly over targets before falling from the sky and exploding—were seen over Pakistani urban centres. Most of these were engaged decisively by Pakistan Army Air Defence (PA AD); there were even cases where Pakistani civilians, armed with whatever firearms they had at home, came out and shot at drones. Some of these munitions did, however, hit populated structures, causing even more civilian casualties.
On the night of the 8th of May, Indian media went into a hysterical frenzy that would make even Joseph Goebbels shudder. The port of Karachi was apparently taken out, Lahore was under siege, and senior military and civilian leaders in Pakistan were unaccounted for. All this was rebuffed in the morning officially and unofficially about ten minutes after it was posted, but the fact that these were established news sources spreading lies sank the credibility of the Indian media. The next day, drones continued to violate Pakistani airspace, and PA AD continued taking them out of the sky.
The tipping point came after midnight on May 10th, when Indian missiles struck PAF Bases Murid, Nur Khan, and Rafiqui. The Director General of Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations, who had delivered a joint presser with senior commanders of the PAF and Pakistan Navy just hours earlier, called a press conference where he confirmed the missile strikes and that no PAF assets were harmed; he concluded by telling India to wait for Pakistan’s answer.
Pakistani Fatah-1 missiles and JF-17 aircraft were in the air not long after. Indian military installations began going up in smoke as various targets were hit across both Indian-administered Kashmir and India proper. Udhampur Air Station—which shares perimeters with the headquarters of the Indian Army’s Northern Command—and Pathankot Air Station—the site of the famous air raid from the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965—were hit; these have been confirmed by official sources on both sides. Pakistan additionally claims to have hit several missile launch sites, a BrahMos missile storage facility around 60 kilometres from Amritsar, an S-400 Triumf air defence system in Adampur, and other military targets. There were reports of Pakistani UAVs over the Indian capital as well as a major cyber attack that disabled several government websites.
After all this avoidable bloodshed, the guns have seemingly fallen silent as the US President took to Truth Social and announced that India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire, a development confirmed by Pakistan’s foreign minister soon after. In hindsight, the contrast is clear: India broke all rules and norms of international law to violate Pakistani sovereignty repeatedly as Pakistan showed restraint and gave a measured response only when all other avenues were exhausted; there were also warning signs of a flare-up for weeks. One wonders whether hastier intervention by foreign powers could have resolved this crisis earlier.